NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – Marking its fifth year on Monday after four consecutive years of gains, the U.S. stock bull market continues to advance. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low of October 12, 2022. That session’s close was at 3,577.03, its weakest since November 2020. By the end of last week, the index closed at 7,811.54, reflecting a 14.1% gain for 2026, with a weekly increase of 1.2%.
This current expansion represents the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record, and it is also the seventh to last at least four years. The 119% rise trails the average gain of 184% observed across the studied bull markets. Notable cycles include the 2009-to-2020 rise of 401% and the 1987-to-2000 surge of 582%. These earlier periods remain among the strongest in terms of sustained gains.
Performance in the fifth year has generally been favorable, although results vary across different cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their four-year mark. When a bull market reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. Historical data also indicates an average maximum drawdown of about 14% during fifth years. These figures depict past market cycles and do not predict the current trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Sustain the Market’s Growth
Earnings reports continue to be a key driver of the ongoing rally. FactSet reports that third-quarter S&P 500 earnings on October 9 were 29.6% higher than a year earlier. This would mark three consecutive quarters with earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth estimate stood at 29.2% at the end of September. Of 19 index companies that have reported, 84% exceeded analysts’ average earnings estimates, with combined earnings surpassing expectations by 4.9%.
Analysts predict strong profit growth will continue through the end of 2026. Fourth-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 are forecasted to increase by 27.6% year-over-year, with full-year earnings growth estimated at 32.4%. About 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates come from semiconductor and hardware firms. Barclays research additionally found these companies account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates year-to-date. Technology-related businesses thus remain prominent in current earnings revisions.
Interest Rate Environment and Year-Five Milestone
The rally coincides with rising interest rates and elevated U.S. government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. Officials indicated that economic activity was expanding at a solid rate while inflation remained elevated. The September projections estimated median 2026 economic growth at 2.3%, with unemployment at 4.1%. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields continue to stay high as the stock market enters its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24% on October 9, with the 30-year yield at 5.60%. Despite the rising yields, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6% that day, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%. As stocks approach this five-year milestone, they do so near record levels, supported by robust earnings growth and higher borrowing costs.